Mixed data, uncertainty in the new highs of the S&P 500.

MOTIVATION
Quote of the week

"Success is finding satisfaction in giving more than you receive."

-Christopher Reeve-

Week of 27/05/2024
What You Need to Know This Week

The current environment is essentially what the Bulls have been waiting for: a soft landing.

• A single rate cut is expected by the end of the year.

• Spot ETFs for ETH are officially legal now.

• The housing market is tight, expensive, and losing momentum.

• The completion time for stock transactions is decreasing, anticipating a higher short-term rate for failed transactions.

• Eli Lilly is in the spotlight for its weight loss drug.

• Historically, a slowing GDP with accelerating EPS (earnings per share) is the best macro scenario for stocks: inflation under control, low rates, and room for company growth.

• The 10-year Treasury yields soared to 4.62%, the highest since early May.

• The FED's Beige Book indicates modest growth since April.

• A FED survey shows that 22% of Americans believe the economy is strong, down from 50% before the pandemic.

• Consumer confidence has worsened for the next 12 months regarding inflation, reflected in the market as bond yields rise due to decreased demand.

• The leveraged x2 Nvidia ETF shows massive demand.

• The PCE for April rose 2.8%, while consumer spending increased by 2%, below the expected 2.5%.

• Consumers are starting to tighten their belts, which could negatively impact retail as they need to adjust margins.

• Six companies represent 30% of the SP500: Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.

We need to closely monitor these developments, as interest rate decisions, public perception of economic strength, and consumer spending trends will be key factors influencing market direction in the coming months.

The truth is that the last three hours of the market on Friday leave more questions than answers; we’ll see how the market direction is defined on Monday and Tuesday.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR 03/06/2024
Economic Events

As we can see, there are quite a few interesting data points next week, and the market closed indecisively, with a strong rise in the last three hours today.

I would wait until Monday or Tuesday to see which direction it takes.

Keep an eye on the unemployment rate on Friday, 06/07/2024.

Weekly technical analysis
Some Interesting Assets [Stocks and Cryptos]

As we mentioned last week, SPY and QQQ were at high levels, so caution was warranted, and indeed, they have corrected to a support zone now. This pullback makes the market look a bit healthier, but nothing is defined yet. We'll see which direction the market takes next week.

DKNG
“Now DKNG is at the $40 area and has rebounded strongly after touching the support zone near $39.27. It is still within this loaded range (red rectangle). I see it as an attractive entry point, but if it falls below this range, I wouldn’t wait because there’s a potential 10% drop if it loses that support down to the next support zone around $35-36.”

This was what we wrote for the week of 05/27/2024.

What happened was that two candles later, it fell sharply and is now at the next support zone of $35.

It looks quite oversold, but I don't feel confident; I see the $31-32 area as more appealing.

ETH-USDT
Ethereum had already provided a good return with those previous candles. It’s now still in a pennant formation, so we need to watch closely for when it breaks out, while also being cautious of a potential fake breakout.

YPF

In the end, YPF rebounded strongly in the $21 region we discussed. Personally, I missed this momentum because I was waiting for it at $19, but that can happen. I hope someone who believed in the $21 level was able to take advantage of it.

BABA

“Currently around $81.20, it’s in a pullback after a strong upward movement. From the last swing, it’s bouncing right at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and has an interesting support zone. The next nearby support is around $77.92. I’ll be watching it closely. There was very good volume on Friday, and it feels like if nothing unusual happens in the macro environment, it could have upward momentum.”

This is what we said last week. Today, it rebounded strongly at $77.30 and has a good path upward, so I like it.

AMD

After the momentum, AMD seems to be accumulating in this region and looks interesting. I’ll be attentive because on the weekly chart, we see indecisive candles. Depending on how the market moves in the first few days of next week, I’ll decide whether to make an entry or not.

SPX

SPX showed signs of a pullback this week, but then in the last three hours of trading, it surged strongly upward. I don’t like to rush into buying, so I’ll see how it develops on Monday and Tuesday, but I’m keeping a close eye on it. It will likely set the direction for the market for the week.

Which stock/crypto should we analyze next week?

Honestly, this week feels like it’s going to be very defined by what happens in the first few days, as many stocks have pulled back to interesting zones but left some doubts. I’ll briefly mention a few and see what I decide to do in the early part of next week (Monday-Tuesday).

Some that look interesting after the rebound in the last three hours: NFLX, TSLA, MSFT, META.

For example, JMIA, which I mentioned a few weeks ago was going to close the GAP, did so, and look how strongly it rose afterward. Great profit.

Random
Random fact of the week

Did you know that jellyfish have no brain or heart? These fascinating organisms use a network of basic nerves in their skin to detect changes in their environment and respond accordingly.

Art
Ilustration of the week