- Aurea Stocks
- Posts
- Bitcoin Unstoppable and Germany Sells
Bitcoin Unstoppable and Germany Sells
Week of July 8 with Important Data. We saw significant increases overall, with bullish pressure, followed by a strong correction on Thursday that recovered on Friday. The declining inflation data provides a positive outlook for potential rate cuts.
Profitus Trader
July 12, 2024
Motivation
Quote of the week
"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it."
-Charles R. Swindoll-
Week of 08/07/2024
What You Need to Know This Week
It was a busy week with inflation data and speeches from FED officials.
Unemployment rose above 4% for the first time in 30 months.
A rate cut in September is becoming increasingly likely.
Global inflation decreased from 8.8% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2023.
Powell stated that inflation is declining, which is a good sign.
Bankruptcies are at record levels in 10 years.
Less than 25% of S&P 500 companies outperformed the index, making it difficult to choose stocks.
BTC fell because Germany sold millions of dollars in Bitcoin; they have less than 5,000 BTC left (having sold nearly $600M, approximately $3 billion).
Consumers do not expect 2% inflation in the short term.
Powell believes it’s not necessary to wait for inflation to reach 2% to cut rates; instead, a trend is sufficient, as it has a certain inertia.
Traders see a 46% chance of two rate cuts this year.
The year-over-year CPI is at 3%, lower than expected and the lowest in 41 months.
The S&P 500 has risen 26% in the last 12 months.
Ten stocks in the S&P 500 represent 35% of the total market cap.
There’s a record number of stocks underperforming compared to the S&P 500.
Tesla has postponed its robotaxi plans; instead of August, it will be in October.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales increased by 13% in June despite a 7% decline in Europe. However, the overall forecast indicates a drop in demand.
Chinese exports rose 8.6% in June, while imports fell 2.3%.
If you’re not subscribed to receive these emails weekly and completely free, you can do so with the button below:
ECONOMIC CALENDAR 15/07/2024
Economic Events
Time (NY) | Event | Influence |
|---|---|---|
Monday | 09:30 | |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul) | High | |
13:00 | ||
Speech by Fed Chair Powell | High | |
17:35 | ||
Speech by FOMC Member Daly | Medium | |
Tuesday | 09:30 | |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
Export Price Index (YoY) | Medium | |
Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | Medium | |
Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | Medium | |
Import Price Index (YoY) | Medium | |
Retail Control Sales (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) | High | |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
09:55 | ||
Redbook (YoY) | Medium | |
11:00 | ||
Business Inventories (MoM) (May) | Medium | |
NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) | Medium | |
17:30 | ||
Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (API) | High | |
Wednesday | 09:30 | |
Building Permits (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
Building Permits (Jun) | High | |
Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
Housing Starts (Jun) | High | |
10:15 | ||
Capacity Utilization Rate (Jun) | Medium | |
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) | Medium | |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) | Medium | |
10:35 | ||
Speech by Waller | High | |
11:30 | ||
EIA Crude Oil Inventories | High | |
14:00 | ||
Beige Book | High | |
Thursday | 09:30 | |
Continuing Jobless Claims | High | |
Initial Jobless Claims | High | |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | High | |
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index (Jul) | Medium | |
Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (Jul) | Medium | |
Philadelphia Fed Employment Index (Jul) | Medium | |
Philadelphia Fed New Orders (Jul) | Medium | |
Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid (Jul) | Medium | |
11:00 | ||
U.S. Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) | High | |
17:00 | ||
Total Net Capital Flow (May) | Medium | |
Long-Term Net Transactions (May) | Medium | |
Long-Term Net Transactions Including Swaps (May) | Medium | |
Foreign Purchases of U.S. T-Bonds (May) | Medium | |
Friday | 11:40 | |
Speech by FOMC Member Williams | High | |
13:45 | ||
Speech by FOMC Member Bostic | High |
With inflation and unemployment data during the week, the market could move significantly next week. It’s important to stay alert.
Weekly technical analysis
Some Interesting Assets [Stocks and Cryptos]
It was a great week, with some assets like TSLA and JMIA yielding an 18% return, while AMD and NVDA gave a bit less. For now, I’m proceeding with more caution given the current volume profile.
JMIA
JMIA keeps giving us joy, up 76% in just a few days! I've already started taking profits on most of my position.
JMIA 1D
NVDA
I like NVDA; I entered while keeping an eye on not breaking below $118, which is the last low. It has been showing very good results, and there's a lot of FOMO, etc.
$NVDA 1D
AMD
AMD had initially gained 18%, and now we’ve added another 5%, making a total of 23%. I'm still holding, and my exit strategy will be if it breaks below $165.
$AMD 1D
Which stock/crypto should we analyze next week?
Tech Stocks
We did well with several tech stocks this week, all driven by news of declining inflation and expectations of rate cuts.
For now, let’s see how next week unfolds while enjoying the benefits from this week. I don’t rule out a slight correction, similar to what we experienced on Thursday, but fortunately, Wednesday recovered all losses, as we can see. However, there's a candle of indecision that we need to watch closely, which is why I'm not extremely positioned.
SPY 1D
Random
Random fact of the week
Did you know that the human brain generates enough electrical impulses in a day to power a 10-watt light bulb? This incredible capacity showcases how powerful and complex our brains are.
Art
Illustration of the week
If you enjoyed the content and think it could be useful to someone you know, feel free to share this newsletter with the button below, and help us grow our community! :)
Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation. All information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Reply