BTC almost kissing the 100k - NVDA week

At the beginning of the week, the indices had already returned to pre-Trump trade levels, offering a good entry point. Meanwhile, BTC is trying to hit 100k, MSTR is soaring, and the dollar is at its highest value of the year. All this and more this week...

Author

Profitus Trader
November 23, 2024

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The SPY dipped and started the week at much more attractive prices compared to post-election and Trump trade levels.
It spent the week recovering and closing gaps.

Many were waiting for NVDA's earnings report to see where the market was headed. Options were extremely expensive, but the stock ended with a range movement of less than 4%, causing a sharp drop in option premiums.

Meanwhile, BTC and meme coins joined the rally, hitting new highs. BTC reached $99,600 before a red candle appeared on Saturday (still not closed). Keep an eye on upcoming events, as there's significant activity and interest from institutions, ETFs, and governments, which could strongly boost BTC's price.

BTC ETFs now hold 1M BTC, valued at $96 billion USD.

Gold, which had been declining due to rate expectations, ended the week higher due to rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

MOTIVATION
QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Great trades are born from discipline, not impulse—stay focused, stay patient, and let the market come to you."

WEEK 18/11/2024 to 23/11/2024
🚨What you need to know this week🚨

  • Indices Recovery: Markets returned to pre-election levels as the "Trump Trade" reversed.

  • Fed Outlook:

    • Chair Jerome Powell signaled no rush to cut rates.

    • Boston Fed's Susan Collins suggested December cuts remain uncertain.

    • Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped to 62%, with 38% predicting no change.

  • Economic Drivers: Tailwinds include AI investments, strong corporate earnings, and a pro-business administration.

  • Treasury Bills: Three-month Treasury bills yield 4.52%, attracting institutional cash.

  • Gold Volatility:

    • Dropped over 4%—its worst week in three years—as rate cut odds fell.

    • Bank of America forecasts gold could reach $3,000 by 2025.

  • Bitcoin Moves:

    • Florida’s pension fund explored Bitcoin investments to boost returns and lower volatility.

    • Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. now hold 1 million BTC, valued at $96 billion.

    • BTC hit a new high of $94,000, driven by ETF news and potential Trump Media deals with Bakkt.

  • MicroStrategy:

    • Shares soared over 461%, outperforming Nvidia and quadrupling Bitcoin's gains.

    • Positioned as a major winner in Bitcoin's rally.

  • Pro-Bitcoin White House: Expected to ease regulations, boosting crypto demand further.

  • Retail Sales: U.S. sales increased 0.4% in October, surpassing expectations.

  • Nasdaq News: Plans to list options on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

  • Google Antitrust Case: DOJ pushes to break up Google's monopoly, targeting Chrome and separating Android from Google Play and Search.

  • Natural Gas: U.S. production expected to grow in 2025 after a decline in 2024.

  • Oil Prices: Rose 3% due to Norway's Johan Sverdrup oil field shutdown and Ukraine-Russia tensions.

  • Dollar Strength: Trades near its highest level in a year.

  • Tech Valuation: TikTok owner ByteDance valued at $300 billion amid growth.

  • Unemployment Claims: Fell to 213,000 during the week of November 16, marking a week-over-week decline.

  • Gary Gensler Resignation: SEC Chair stepping down on January 20, paving the way for crypto-friendly regulations.

  • Bitcoin Reserve Proposal: Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests the U.S. buy 200,000 BTC annually over five years to amass 1 million BTC.

  • EV Tax Credits: Automakers urge Trump to maintain EV credits to protect investments.

  • Nvidia Dominance: Accounts for 20% of the S&P 500’s returns, underscoring its market influence.

  • Gold Recovery: Rebounded to a weekly high due to Ukraine-Russia war tensions.

23/11/2024
🔎 Insights on the market 🔎

$SPY had a BEAUTIFUL recovery, holding the support level we mentioned in last week’s email at $585. Personally, my timing was spot on—I went short throughout the entire downward move and then went long x3 at $585.

I’ve been discussing this on my X channel, where you can follow me and check out my daily analyses.

For now, $SPY remains quite bullish, but I’ve significantly reduced my leverage and am now at x1 instead of x3.

You can see the first comments on SPY on my X account below:

SPY 1D

BTC is the same—we said a breakout was coming any moment. I mentioned it on X, and it looked interesting. Check out the consolidation further down in the post.

23/11/2024
✍️Market Lessons ✍️

Something fundamental here is not rushing into trades, waiting for the safest setups, like the SPY case with its price dip.

Another interesting example is the options play around NVDA’s earnings. These are usually very risky. Remember, as volatility increases, options become more expensive, but if the price doesn’t move much in the end, their value drops significantly.

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📅Next Week’s Economic Calendar (25/11 to 29/11):📅

Monday, November 25, 2024

  • 13:00: 2-Year Note Auction (Previous: 4.130%)

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

  • 08:00: Building Permits

    • Actual: 1.416M | Forecast: 1.425M

  • 09:00: S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (Sep)

    • MoM: -0.3% | YoY: 5.2%

  • 10:00:

    • CB Consumer Confidence (Forecast: 108.7)

    • New Home Sales (Forecast: 738K)

    • New Home Sales (MoM) (Forecast: 4.1%)

  • 13:00: 5-Year Note Auction (Previous: 4.138%)

  • 14:00: FOMC Meeting Minutes

  • 16:30: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (Previous: 4.753M)

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

  • 08:30:

    • Continuing Jobless Claims (Forecast: 1,908K)

    • Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) (Forecast: 0.5%)

    • Core PCE Prices (Q3) (Forecast: 2.20%)

    • Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) (Forecast: -0.7%)

    • GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (Forecast: 2.8%)

    • GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) (Forecast: 1.8%)

    • Goods Trade Balance (Oct) (Forecast: -108.69B)

    • Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 213K)

    • Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct) (Forecast: 0.2%)

  • 09:45: Chicago PMI

    • Actual: 44.9 | Forecast: 41.6

  • 10:00:

    • Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) (Forecast: 2.7%)

    • Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) (Forecast: 0.3%)

    • PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) (Forecast: 2.1%)

    • PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) (Forecast: 0.2%)

    • Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) (Forecast: 7.4%)

    • Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) (Forecast: 0.5%)

  • 10:30:

    • Crude Oil Inventories (Forecast: 0.545M)

    • Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Forecast: -0.140M)

  • 13:00:

    • 7-Year Note Auction (Previous: 4.215%)

    • Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (Forecast: 2.6%)

    • U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (Forecast: 479)

    • U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Forecast: 583)

  • 14:00: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, November 28, 2024

  • All Day: United States - Thanksgiving Day (Holiday)

Friday, November 29, 2024

  • Holiday: United States - Thanksgiving Day (Early close at 13:00)

  • 09:45: Chicago PMI (Nov) (Forecast: 41.6)

  • 15:30:

    • CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (Forecast: 193.9K)

    • CFTC Gold speculative net positions (Forecast: 234.4K)

    • CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (Forecast: 19.8K)

    • CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Forecast: 34.9K)

  • 16:30: Fed's Balance Sheet (Previous: 6,924B)

📅EARNINGS CALENDAR (25/11 to 29/11)📅

Monday, November 25, 2024

  • Agilent Technologies (A)

    • EPS (Forecast): 1.41

    • Revenue (Forecast): 1.67B

    • Market Cap: 38.46B

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

  • Analog Devices (ADI)

    • EPS (Forecast): 1.64

    • Revenue (Forecast): 2.4B

    • Market Cap: 106.54B

  • Dell Tech (DELL)

    • EPS (Forecast): 2.07

    • Revenue (Forecast): 24.69B

    • Market Cap: 101.23B

  • CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)

    • EPS (Forecast): 0.8088

    • Revenue (Forecast): 982.81M

    • Market Cap: 91.25B

  • Workday (WDAY)

    • EPS (Forecast): 1.76

    • Revenue (Forecast): 2.13B

    • Market Cap: 70.66B

  • Autodesk (ADSK)

    • EPS (Forecast): 2.12

    • Revenue (Forecast): 1.56B

    • Market Cap: 69.09B

  • HP Inc (HPQ)

    • EPS (Forecast): 0.9283

    • Revenue (Forecast): 13.99B

    • Market Cap: 36.75B

  • Best Buy (BBY)

    • EPS (Forecast): 1.3

    • Revenue (Forecast): 9.64B

    • Market Cap: 19.23B

  • JM Smucker (SJM)

    • EPS (Forecast): 2.5

    • Revenue (Forecast): 2.26B

    • Market Cap: 12.06B

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