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- BTC ATH, SPY selling off ahead of the elections, and mixed earnings reports
BTC ATH, SPY selling off ahead of the elections, and mixed earnings reports
Bitcoin hit a high of 73,500 this week, QQQ reached a new peak again, and approaching Friday, all indices saw sell-offs.
Profitus Trader
November 01, 2024
VERY busy week in the market with earnings reports from:
$GOOG Alphabet +6%
$RDDT Reddit +25%
$AMD AMD -8%
$PYPL PayPal -4%
$MCD McDonald's -1%
$META Meta -4%
$AMZN Amazon +8%
A lot of ambiguity overall, which is reflected in both SPY and QQQ. Many are opting to stay in cash ahead of the elections, mainly due to uncertainty. On Thursday, SPY opened with a negative gap and dropped nearly 2%. On Friday, with a boost from Amazon’s positive results, the indices recovered slightly
MOTIVATION
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
Patience is not the ability to wait, but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting.
WEEK 28/10/2024 to 01/11/2024
🚨What you need to know this week🚨
S&P 500’s Election Record: Historically, the S&P has only been negative in two U.S. presidential election years out of the past 75 years.
Optimism Amid Strong Labor & Earnings: Markets remain hopeful with strong labor data and solid earnings.
BTC Hits All-Time Highs: Bitcoin reached new highs, boosted by inflows from ETFs and historical demand.
Metals Surge: Gold and other metals reached record levels, reflecting demand as economic uncertainties continue.
Amazon's Earnings Surprise: Amazon lifted the market with strong earnings, showing resilience in consumer spending.
Mixed Growth Data: U.S. GDP grew by 2.8% annualized in Q3, slightly below expectations of 3.1%.
Super Micro Computer’s Struggle: Faced significant red after an accounting firm resignation and a short-seller report.
Consumer Confidence Surge: Confidence rose 11%, the highest jump since March 2021, underscoring optimism.
01/11/2024
🔎 Insights on the market 🔎
If there's one thing we can say about this week, it's how quickly news and corporate events can set the trend. On one hand, we saw a sharp drop in oil after Israel refrained from attacking energy infrastructure in Iran. On the other, we had very mixed earnings results, with gains as high as 25% for companies like REDDIT and significant drops in EBAY and AMD due to disappointing reports or overblown expectations.
Despite this, we also have some interesting analysis on SPY and other assets, which we covered on my X profile, but here’s a recap:
$GOOG setup turned out perfect
— Aurea Stocks (@profitustrader)
3:12 PM • Oct 30, 2024
Both SPY and QQQ couldn’t break their highs and ended the week with a drop. In SPY’s case, there were already signs of uncertainty since all the candles were red (meaning they closed lower than they opened, signaling selling pressure). Thursday brought a strong opening with a notable gap. However, there’s a pattern forming—a bearish rising wedge, even though volume hasn’t confirmed it yet, as you can see in the posts we shared below.
$SPY aiming to close the gap? Let’s see how today’s price closes. Ideally, we’d get a close above yesterday’s candle.
— Aurea Stocks (@profitustrader)
2:30 PM • Nov 1, 2024
In the case of QQQ, the wedge pattern is the most visible:
I've been seeing a lot of posts on X saying the bearish rising wedge pattern is forming on $QQQ.
It seems likely, but we’re also seeing plenty of selling pressure due to market uncertainty with the upcoming U.S. elections and mixed results in recent earnings reports.
There are… x.com/i/web/status/1…— Aurea Stocks (@profitustrader)
6:24 PM • Oct 31, 2024
📜 Historical Perspective 📜
With U.S. elections around the corner, it’s insightful to look back at how markets have historically responded to presidential election years. Over the past 75 years, the S&P 500 has only been negative in two election years. Historically, markets tend to remain volatile in the months leading up to the election, with sectors like defense, technology, and energy often seeing heightened activity based on anticipated policy shifts. This week is a reminder that while history offers patterns, every election cycle brings unique dynamics influenced by both domestic and global factors.
01/11/2024
✍️Market Lessons ✍️
This week underscores the importance of monitoring external factors, such as corporate announcements and geopolitical events. The oil market’s reaction to geopolitical stability between Israel and Iran showcased how quickly sentiment can shift when major risk events are averted. Additionally, earnings season brought a mixed bag of reactions—while some companies, like REDDIT, saw gains up to 25%, others like EBAY and AMD faced sharp declines due to missed expectations. The key lesson here: watch for both the market’s immediate reaction to news and the underlying trends that signal broader shifts.
💸 Common Mistakes 💸
A common pitfall in the current market environment is reacting impulsively to news without considering the longer-term trend. This week, for instance, SPY showed consistent selling pressure even with temporary gaps higher. Many traders could be lured into entering long positions based solely on daily openings without acknowledging the red candles that indicated weakness. Another mistake is to overlook the role of volume—patterns such as the rising wedge in QQ often need volume confirmation before their implications are fully validated. Staying patient and waiting for confirmation can often prevent costly missteps.
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📅Next Week’s Economic Calendar (04/11 to 08/11):📅
Monday, November 4, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
12:00 | Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) | -0.2% | |
15:00 | 3-Year Note Auction | 3.878% |
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
07:00 | U.S. Presidential Election | ||
10:30 | Exports (Sep) | 271.80B | |
10:30 | Imports (Sep) | 342.20B | |
11:45 | S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | 54.3 | 54.0 |
12:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.3 | 54.9 |
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
12:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.515M | |
15:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.389% |
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
10:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,862K | |
15:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.75% | 5.00% |
Friday, November 8, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
12:00 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) | 70.0 | 70.5 |
14:00 | WASDE Report |
📅EARNINGS CALENDAR (04/11 to 08/11)📅
Monday, November 4, 2024
Company | EPS Forecast | Revenue Forecast | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Berkshire Hathaway B | 4.86 | 92.23B | 976.66B |
Vertex | 4.08 | 2.69B | 121.28B |
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Company | EPS Forecast | Revenue Forecast | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Emerson | 1.47 | 4.57B | 61.92B |
Marathon Petroleum | 1.04 | 34.34B | 47.96B |
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Company | EPS Forecast | Revenue Forecast | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
Qualcomm | 2.56 | 9.9B | 183.79B |
MercadoLibre | 10.57 | 5.27B | 103.97B |
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