Finally a pullback - What's next?

MOTIVATION
QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"The secret of getting ahead is getting started." – Mark Twain

WEEK 11/11/2024 to 15/11/2024
🚨What you need to know this week🚨

• Chinese Equities in Focus: While Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty, Beijing’s stimulus has pushed the CSI 300 up 25% since October.

• Inflation Worries: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warns Trump’s tariffs could fuel long-term inflation concerns.

• Buffett's Cash Stash: Warren Buffett doubled Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves to $311 billion after selling $127 billion in equities.

• Gold Slides: Gold dropped for the third session, weighed down by a stronger dollar and expectations of higher interest rates.

• Tech and AI Hiring Surge: Salesforce plans to hire 1,000 AI sales staff as tech firms revamp AI model testing processes.

• Bitcoin ETFs Boom: Record $1.4 billion inflows into Bitcoin ETFs highlight surging demand.

• Treasury Yields Rise: U.S. break-even rates increased as inflation expectations climbed due to potential tariffs.

• BTC at $100K?: With Trump’s pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin is well-positioned to break the $100,000 barrier.

• Market Milestone: Bitcoin is now the eighth-largest asset globally by market cap.

• Crypto-Friendly Administration?: Trump considers pro-crypto candidates for key financial regulatory roles.

• MicroStrategy Goes Big: The company acquired another $2 billion in Bitcoin.

• Legal Moves: FTX sued Binance and its former CEO, aiming to recover $1.8 billion.

• Efficiency Department: Trump launched a new government efficiency initiative, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

• OPEC+ Cuts Demand Forecast: The group lowered global demand projections for 2024 and 2025.

• U.S. Inflation Expectations Drop: Consumers expect inflation at 2.9%, the lowest in four years.

• TikTok Ban Halted?: Trump plans to stop the TikTok ban and promote banking sector mergers.

• Mixed Data on Inflation: October inflation rose to 2.6% YoY, while core inflation remained steady at 3.3%.

• Dollar Rally: The greenback hit a 6.5-month high as speculation over tariffs and migration controls surged.

• Crypto Soars in the U.S.: Bitcoin hit $93,000, driven by booming U.S. demand. Doubling its value in 2024.

• New Crypto Index: Coinbase launched the "Coinbase 50," the crypto equivalent of the S&P 500.

• Earnings Highlights: Disney ($DIS) outperformed with streaming profits, while AMD ($AMD) announced a 4% workforce reduction to prioritize AI chips.

• Global Crypto Market: Now worth $3.2 trillion, the market thrives under pro-crypto policies.

• Jobless Claims Decline: Weekly claims fell to 217,000, showing resilience in the U.S. labor market.

• PPI Above Forecasts: October’s PPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding expectations.

• States vs. SEC: 18 states filed lawsuits against the SEC, alleging overreach in crypto regulation.

• Bitcoin Reserve Act: Pennsylvania proposed allocating up to 10% of its $7 billion fund into Bitcoin investments.

15/11/2024
🔎 Insights on the market 🔎

What a week we had! As we’ve been saying, the SP500 needed to correct at some point to start offering entry opportunities—no need to rush. And here it is. Today, the $SPY reached the $585 target, and we’ll see how next week starts. For now, its holding just above the support of $585 and has another at the $576 zone (which is a GAP that might not get filled if the market turns very bullish).

On the other hand, NVDA closed a gap and is now positioned at an interesting price level ahead of its earnings presentation next week... something to keep an eye on.

As for MARA, I made a 150% return in a single day by buying PUTS. Why? It was in the red even as BTC was reaching $91K... just imagine where it would go when BTC retraced a bit. I took full advantage of that.

Meanwhile, TSLA is also correcting, moving in line with the broader market. During the pullback it filled 1 GAP, let’s see if its keeps going down to fill the GAP 2 in the chart, which might not happen if things get very bullish.

📜 Historical Perspective 📜

• Election-Driven Markets: Historically, pro-business administrations often lead to short-term bullishness in equities, though long-term impacts depend on policy execution.

15/11/2024
✍️Market Lessons ✍️

If I have to highlight something, it's the importance of patience, which was evident with the massive rally post-elections that pushed $SPY to $600. A correction was to be expected, and now it's happening. Rushing to enter would have meant enduring significant corrections in some assets.

📅Next Week’s Economic Calendar (18/11 to 22/11):📅

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

• 08:30: Building Permits (Oct)

• 08:30: Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct)

• 11:30: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

• 10:30: Crude Oil Inventories

• 13:00: 20-Year Bond Auction

Thursday, November 21, 2024

• 08:30: Initial Jobless Claims

• 08:30: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Friday, November 22, 2024

• 09:45: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

• 10:00: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)

📅EARNINGS CALENDAR (18/11 to 22/11)📅

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

• Walmart (WMT): Revenue forecast $167.61B

• Lowe’s (LOW): Revenue forecast $19.91B

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

• Nvidia (NVDA): Revenue forecast $32.97B

• Target (TGT): Revenue forecast $25.93B

Thursday, November 21, 2024

• Intuit (INTU): Revenue forecast $3.14B

• Deere & Co. (DE): Revenue forecast $9.23B