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- BIPOLAR Market: One week pessimistic, the next week optimistic.
BIPOLAR Market: One week pessimistic, the next week optimistic.
The market sentiment is shifting week by week with each set of data—one week pessimistic, the next bullish, and so on. The index has recovered all it lost and closed the gap created on Black Monday. Inflation has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. This high volatility is leading investors to demand more fixed-income assets like bonds.
Profitus Trader
August 16, 2024
MOTIVATION
Quote of the week
"Life is like a theater: it is not the length of the performance, but the excellence of the acting that matters."
- Sen no Rikyū, maestro del té japonés -
Week of 12/08/2024
What You Need to Know This Week
Weak job data has reignited recession fears.
In August, the SPY has already fallen 6%, while the Nikkei is down 20%.
Other risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increased carry trade movement with the Yen, and uncertainty surrounding the presidential elections.
The CEO of Bank of America states that consumers now need a rate cut.
Consumers feel that inflation is decreasing, but this does not necessarily mean their financial situations are improving.
There is a significant inflow into fixed-income assets like bonds, as investors seek protection against high volatility.
Inflation is below 3% for the first time since 2021.
Housing costs remain the biggest obstacle to inflation.
The VIX is retreating sharply.
The market is alternating between optimism one week and pessimism the next.
There is a 77% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in September.
Bank of America may become a sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 2026.
Fears of recession are gradually dissipating.
The dollar has fallen 15% against the yen since July.
66% of institutional BTC ETF holders maintained or bought more in Q2.
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Economic Calendar 19/08/2024
Economic Events
Time (NY) | Event | Influence |
|---|---|---|
Monday | 10:15 | |
Speech by Fed's Waller | High | |
11:00 | ||
U.S. Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) | High | |
Tuesday | 09:55 | |
Redbook (YoY) | Medium | |
14:35 | ||
Speech by FOMC Member Bostic | Medium | |
15:45 | ||
Speech by Vice Chairman Barr | High | |
17:30 | ||
Weekly Crude Inventories API | High | |
Wednesday | 11:30 | |
Crude Inventories EIA | High | |
15:00 | ||
FOMC Meeting Minutes | High | |
Thursday | 09:00 | |
Jackson Hole Symposium | High | |
09:30 | ||
Continuing Jobless Claims | High | |
Initial Jobless Claims | High | |
10:45 | ||
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | High | |
11:00 | ||
Existing Home Sales (Jul) | High | |
Friday | 09:00 | |
Jackson Hole Symposium | High |
There are several high-influence events scheduled for the week, particularly speeches from Fed officials and the Jackson Hole Symposium, which could impact the markets significantly.
Random
Random fact of the week
Did you know that penguins propose marriage? When a male penguin finds a mate with whom he wants to start a family, he searches for the most beautiful stone he can find and offers it to his beloved as a symbol of commitment.
Art
Ilustration of the week
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Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation. All information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
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