- Aurea Stocks
- Posts
- New president and market is booming
New president and market is booming
Trump's victory pushed the indices sharply upward, and with Elon’s support, TESLA also skyrocketed in an impressive rally. Let’s break down what happened this week and what we might expect ahead.
Profitus Trader
November 08, 2024
In partnership with
Market Optimism Following Trump’s Win
Trump’s pro-business stance and tax cuts have given the market a confidence boost. However, not everything is rosy. Tariffs and rising debt levels are putting pressure on other areas of the economy, so it’s crucial to stay vigilant.
For swing traders, SPY appears quite overbought as the week wraps up, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a minor correction next week. Reminder: Monday is a holiday.
On another note, my X account was unfortunately suspended without any explanation. I’ll be setting up a new one soon, and I’ll email you when it’s ready so you can be my first followers.
New Decentraland desktop client for Mac and Windows
Enhanced avatars and social interactions
Improved performance and upgraded environments
New features: badges, daily quests, and mini-games
MOTIVATION
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"Life is what happens when you’re busy making other plans." — John Lennon
WEEK 04/11/2024 to 08/11/2024
🚨What you need to know this week🚨
Jobs Report Shock: Only 12K jobs added in October, much lower than the expected 100K. Revisions are anticipated.
NVIDIA Joins the Dow: Replacing Intel in the DJIA, NVIDIA solidifies its growing influence.
Oil Prices Rise: Prices surged as OPEC announced a supply cut for December.
Berkshire’s Cash Reserve: Berkshire Hathaway holds $325B in cash, reflecting a defensive stance.
Market Flows: $5.83B exited U.S. equity funds, while $7.378B flowed into bond funds.
Market Drivers: Bull market supported by economic growth, disinflation, rate cuts, and AI adoption.
Record Government Debt: Global government debt reaches an astonishing $100T.
Real Estate Trends: Home sales rise YoY, but first-time buyers face challenges, with median buying age reaching a high of 38.
Crypto Highlights: Robinhood, Kraken, and Galaxy launched a stablecoin pegged to the dollar, boosting adoption.
Post-Election Rally: Investors moved into equities, crypto, and meme stocks post-Trump victory.
BTC Surges: Reaches $75K overnight, buoyed by election results.
Dollar Surge: Gains 1.6%, marking its best day since March 2020.
NVIDIA’s Market Cap Tops Apple: At $3.43T, NVIDIA becomes the most valuable company.
10 & 30-Year Bond Yields: Increased yields indicate a complex Fed path ahead due to Trump’s policies.
08/11/2024
🔎 Insights on the market 🔎
Bond Yields and Market Ambiguity
Bond yields are rising, and as we know, yields move inversely to bond prices, which have been dropping. Why? Increased debt means more bond supply, which lowers prices and raises yields. The market seems a bit ambiguous—pro-business on one hand, but with some concerning factors that demand close monitoring.
Trump’s strong support for crypto has also boosted BTC. A more crypto-friendly environment is expected, along with higher adoption, especially with the new ETF inflows.
Renewable Energy Stocks Take a Hit
Renewable energy stocks have fallen since Trump, a skeptic of climate change and supporter of oil, came into power.
Meanwhile, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them down to 4.5-4.75%.
Now, let’s look at the charts for some key assets:
SPY
The S&P 500 hit new highs, with a big run-up far from its EMAs and nearing overbought on the RSI. A pullback wouldn’t be surprising, and a gap has formed, though it’s uncertain when it might close. Closest support level is around $585.60. It’s clearly overextended—profit-taking is inevitable at some point.
SPY this week
QQQ
Same story as SPY: overbought and extended, with declining volume signaling exhaustion. Support sits around $506.70 and $503.46. I'll keep an eye on it next week.
TESLA AH earnings day
TSLA
Star of the week. Those who bought before last week’s earnings report made a fortune. It was already on an upswing, and Trump’s victory, with Elon’s endorsement, gave it a powerful lift the next day, resembling a squeeze. TSLA surged to $324 in post-market, showing insane growth with increasing volume, though RSI is overbought.
If it pulls back, it has support at $312, $300, and $275. I won’t enter until I see a dip—the risk-to-reward ratio isn’t favorable at this level.
TSLA daily
📜 Historical Perspective 📜
Historically, stock markets often rally post-election, particularly with pro-business administrations. Trump's first term saw significant tax cuts and deregulation, both positive for business sectors. However, higher debt levels and potential inflation raise long-term caution..
08/11/2024
✍️Market Lessons ✍️
This week emphasizes the importance of understanding underlying market drivers, such as economic policy shifts and inflation expectations. With recent job figures and Trump’s policies influencing yield trends, investors must stay informed and strategically balance risk and reward.
💸 Common Mistakes 💸
A common misstep in volatile environments is over-leveraging in response to election outcomes. Market sentiment can be overly optimistic or pessimistic following major events, so it's essential to avoid impulse-driven decisions and maintain a balanced approach.
If you're not subscribed to receive these emails weekly and completely free, you can do so with the button below:
📅Next Week’s Economic Calendar (11/11 to 15/11):📅
Eastern time zone. (EST)
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
07:00 - OPEC Monthly Report
10:00 - Fed Waller Speaks
11:00 - NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct) - Forecast: 3.0%
14:00 - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
17:00 - FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
08:30 - Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) - Forecast: 3.3%
08:30 - Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) - Actual: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3%
08:30 - CPI (MoM) (Oct) - Actual: 0.2% | Forecast: 0.2%
08:30 - CPI (YoY) (Oct) - Forecast: 2.4%
12:00 - EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
14:00 - Federal Budget Balance (Oct) - Forecast: 64.0B
Thursday, November 14, 2024
05:00 - IEA Monthly Report
08:30 - Continuing Jobless Claims - Forecast: 1,892K
08:30 - Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) - Forecast: 0.2%
08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 221K
08:30 - PPI (MoM) (Oct) - Actual: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
15:00 - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
16:15 - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
16:30 - Fed's Balance Sheet - Forecast: 6,994B
Friday, November 15, 2024
08:30 - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) - Forecast: 0.5%
13:00 - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) - Forecast: 2.5%
📅EARNINGS CALENDAR (11/11 to 15/11)📅
Tuesday, November 12
Home Depot: Expected EPS: 3.63, Revenue: 39.21B
AstraZeneca: Expected EPS: 1.02, Revenue: 13.07B
Wednesday, November 13
Cisco: Expected EPS: 0.87, Revenue: 13.78B
Thursday, November 14
Walt Disney: Expected EPS: 1.1, Revenue: 22.48B
Applied Materials: Expected EPS: 2.19, Revenue: 6.96B
Reply