MOTIVATION
Quote of the week
"The market rewards those who understand change, not those who fear it."
Week of 09/09/2024
What to Know This Week
Palantir and Dell Join the S&P 500: A strategic change in the world's most followed index, reflecting the growth and relevance of tech companies, as they replace Etsy and American Airlines.
Apple Unveils the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence: Great expectations surround the new AI integration. Despite the event, Apple’s stock fell 5% in September.
Historically, AAPL Rises 2.2% Between Announcement and Launch: Although Apple typically reacts positively after announcing a new iPhone, this month has already been challenging for the stock.
Oracle Rises 9% After Beating Expectations: The company continues to show strength and surprised the market with its quarterly results.
Trump vs. Harris on Corporate Taxes: While Harris proposes raising the corporate tax to 28%, Trump aims to reduce it to 15%. Currently, it stands at 21%.
Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Since December 2021: This week, crude prices plummeted, creating opportunities and risks in the energy market.
August Inflation Drops to 2.5%, Lowest Since March 2021: Inflation continues to decelerate, down from 2.9% in July. However, core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, rose to 3.2%.
16/09/2024
Reflection on What Happened and What May Happen
We have returned to a market seeking new highs, with the S&P 500 forming an ascending triangle and at a key point, just in time for Wednesday's interest rate cut data. It's been a very eventful week where anything can happen. While it’s at a peak with the possibility of a breakout, we must also consider that so many consecutive days of upward movement have left it far from support zones.
SPY 1D
Historical Perspective
Changes in the S&P 500: Throughout history, the addition of technology companies like Palantir has tended to reflect the evolution of market trends, highlighting how indices adjust to new realities.
Apple Launches: Since the iPhone 6, Apple has experienced a pattern of revaluation prior to the launch of each new model, but this year the markets seem to have approached with greater caution.
16/09/2024
Market Lessons
This week highlights the impact of expectations on the markets. The additions to the S&P 500 and Oracle's results underscore the importance of well-managed expectations, while Apple's movements demonstrate that even major players are not exempt from volatility.
Common Mistakes
A common mistake observed this week was overestimating the positive effect of the iPhone 16 launch on Apple's stock. Many investors did not anticipate the 5% drop in the stock's value, illustrating that major events do not always lead to immediate significant results.
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Economic Calendar 16/09/2024
Economic Events
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
09:30 | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.4% |
09:30 | Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 1.1% |
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
11:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.200M | 0.833M |
15:00 | FOMC Economic Projections | ||
15:00 | FOMC Statement | ||
15:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.50% |
15:30 | FOMC Press Conference |
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
09:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230K | 231K |
09:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) | -0.8 | -7.0 |
11:00 | Existing Home Sales (Aug) | 3.92M | 3.96M |
Economic Calendar 16/09/2024
Earnings Reports
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Company | EPS / Forecast | Revenue / Forecast | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
General Mills (GIS) | 1.07 / 1.05 | 4.85B / 4.77B | 41.04B |
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Company | EPS / Forecast | Revenue / Forecast | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
FedEx (FDX) | 3.6 / 4.86 | 21.6B / 21.96B | 66.93B |
Lennar (LEN) | 3.9 / 3.64 | 9.42B / 9.16B | 51.41B |
Darden Restaurants (DRI) | 1.75 / 1.84 | 2.76B / 2.81B | 19.30B |
FactSet Research (FDS) | 3.74 / 3.62 | 562.2M / 546.76M | 17.48B |
Summary
Summary of the week
Gold reached new highs this week, while oil fell to its lowest level since December 2021. This behavior shows the divergence between safe-haven assets and those more sensitive to global demand.
Attention
Risk Alert
The proposed reduction of the corporate tax to 15% by Trump could significantly impact tax revenues and generate volatility in the markets, especially in sensitive sectors like energy. If Harris manages to raise the tax to 28%, many tech companies will see a reduction in their reinvestment capacity, which could lead to negative movements in the stock markets.
Attention
Opportunities Map
With oil falling to 2021 lows, an opportunity arises for investors looking to enter the energy sector at low prices. Additionally, gold continues to show strength as a safe-haven asset, which could benefit investors during times of uncertainty, especially if the Fed cuts rates.
Art
Ilustration of the week
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Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation. All information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
