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24/05/2025
🔎 Insights on the market 🔎
🧭 Detailed Chart Breakdown
SPY daily
✅ Key Resistance Zone: ~596.91 USD
This level (highlighted in yellow on the chart) aligns with the previous highs from early 2025.
The SPY faced strong rejection from this zone, forming a bearish candle right at resistance.
Sellers stepped in aggressively, suggesting that bulls will need momentum and volume to break through this ceiling on a future attempt.
🧷 Major Dynamic Support: 200-Day Moving Average
The recent pullback landed precisely on the 200-day simple moving average (white line).
This is a crucial long-term level watched by institutional investors.
Friday’s candle closed just above it, hinting at a possible bounce — but without confirmation yet.
📉 Short-Term Moving Averages (9, 21, 50 EMA)
These remain in bullish alignment, which keeps the medium-term structure intact.
The price is currently below the short EMAs, so reclaiming the 9-day EMA (~585 USD) would be an early signal of renewed bullish control.
📊 Volume Profile
The selloff occurred on lighter volume compared to the rally that preceded it — a good sign for bulls.
Lower volume on down days suggests this may be a technical pullback, not a panic-driven selloff.
Watch for rising volume on green candles next week — that could be a bullish signal.
🔮 Potential Scenarios for the Week Ahead
🟢 Bullish Scenario (base case if macro news is neutral or positive)
The 200-day SMA holds as a support and buyers step in.
If the SPY reclaims short-term EMAs, it could retest the 596–597 USD resistance zone.
A breakout above that range, with conviction, could set the stage for a move toward new all-time highs (600+ USD).
🟠 Neutral Scenario (sideways range)
The SPY trades between 572 and 588 USD, consolidating after a strong rally.
A sideways move would allow indicators to reset and shake out weak hands — a healthy pause for a bullish continuation later on.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (less likely but must be monitored)
A break below the 200-day SMA (~577 USD) on strong volume would be a negative technical signal.
This could trigger a drop toward the 560–565 USD support area, which aligns with previous consolidation and the 50 EMA.
A weekly close below that zone would shift sentiment and open the door to a deeper correction.
🔍 Key Catalysts to Watch This Week
Macroeconomic data: PCE inflation, consumer spending, and any Fed commentary.
Market narrative: Ongoing geopolitical developments and potential trade agreements (U.S.–EU, China, Ukraine) could swing sentiment.
Technical signals: Watch volume and candlestick patterns near the 200-day SMA — that’s the battleground.
📝 Bottom Line for Readers
The SPY is at a make-or-break level. A successful rebound from the 200-day moving average could signal a renewed push toward all-time highs. But if this support fails, markets could correct further. The coming week is a technical inflection point — eyes on volume, price action, and macro headlines.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. All the information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
